The OPEC May 2015 data extrapolated to 2016

I took the data from the OPEC charts included by Ron in this post, prepared a table with the 1Q and 4Q 2015, estimated the decline rate (natural log of the ratio corrected by 0.75 to account for the time interval), and then extrapolated to 2016  using the calculated "decline rate".

The extrapolation is a pretty simple minded math manipulation, I tried to keep hands off, didn´t put in any logic such as why would Canada´s production keep on increasing while everybody else decreased. The end point result is 1.8 million barrels per day production drop from 1Q 2015 to 4Q 2016. Remember these are extrapolated figures, there´s no accounting for oil prices. I don´t think Canada can increase production over 2015 and 2016, therefore I suspect OPEC is pointing out that in the current price environment they expect non OPEC liquids capacity to drop about 2 million BPD.

They fudge the data by lumping in non crude and condensate, therefore this information has to be used with extreme care.