11/19/2016

State of the Climate Fall 2016

I like looking at climate data, it helps me understand a bit better what may be going on, and sort through the intense propaganda campaigns being waged in the climate front. Unfortunately the subject has been hijacked and made into a political hot potato, and nowadays about 95 % of what's published or shown on social media and TV is tainted, or bullshit, or a one sided view crafted using cherry picked data.

Anyhow, below I'll show you the temperature reanalysis time series published by the "Climate Reanalyzer" site at the University of Maine*. Here's the world's average temperature at 2 meters elevation, for every September since 1979, estimated using the PRISM reanalysis:


And here's the NCEP model 2 meter average temperature for September in the sector poleward  of 60 degrees South latitude (Antarctica and surrounding waters). I used September because September 2016 is being uploaded now, in mid November. The first plot uses the Prism model with September 2016 loaded, but the second plot, which uses NCEP, didn't  have it as of two days ago.


I decided to show you these to encourage you to visit their website, go to the Climate Reanalysis time series page, and learn to make your own plots.
I don't think the University of Maine has been "biased" by the polarized political climate. They seem to run these reanalysis models, publish the data, and that's it.

I'll leave it up to you to reach your own conclusions as to whether what we read/hear about temperatures may not be getting a bit tweaked. Update on Feb 16: I prepared this plot using homogeneous anomalies, it shows an odd departure between NASA surface and atmosphere data since 2005: Difference in NASA data plots

I do want to point out that I look at the Antarctic temperature data as shown at null school, it shows a ring of water slightly colder than normal around Antarctica. This ring has been there since 2015, when I started visiting this site: 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=22.10,-109.02,503


(*) From their main page we get" Climate Reanalyzer is a platform for visualizing climate and weather datasets. The site is coded and maintained by Dr. Sean Birkel through support from the Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, and the National Science Foundation.

On this site, you can access climate information using interfaces for reanalysis and historical station data. Maps, timeseries, and correlation analyses can be plotted for gridded models. Station data and model timeseries can be exported in CSV format for use in spreadsheet software."

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