6/06/2016

Comparative analysis of methods to overthrow dictatorsships

History shows that dictatorships can be incredibly long lived (Soviet and Chinese communism, Castro Family in Cuba, Saudi Monarchy, Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Teodoro Obiang Nguema in Ecuatorial Guinea, and many others). 

Alejandro Castro, Raul's son, is 
maneuvering to inherit the dictatorship. 

Violent efforts to overthrow dictatorships are seldom successful. Fidel Castro overthrew Batista, the Romanian Caesescus were deposed fairly fast, and the Shah of Iran fell to a very fast rebellion as he sickened with cancer and left the country. But these changes were enabled by weak leadership at the top, and a sympathetic nod from surrounding nations. For example, Fidel Castro enjoyed suble support from the USA government (i know from a first hand account I heard from my uncle, who was flying weapons and ammo to Castro's rebel forces from South Florida to Cuba). 

I can't have a clear conscience if I were to recommend using violent actions to overthrow the Maduro dictatorship. The regime has serious infrastructure weaknesses I know how to attack rather easily, but I'm convinced that would get innocent people killed, lead to much more repression, and possibly trigger a civil war. 

Violence will be counterproductive.

Therefore I'm leaning towards use of strictly peaceful actions, which can include labor strikes and protests in Venezuela, the use of the National Assembly's legislative powers (such as are allowed to exist by Maduro), actions in international forums (these are unlikely to yield much), and denunciations of crimes against humanity by Maduro when he denies humanitarian aid to enter, and implements a program to starve the (majority) opposition population. 

Another front should be opened to boycott and attack foreign corporations which cooperate with the regime, loan money to Maduro, and invest. And these boycotts and actions need to be directed at companies in both Venezuela and Cuba. The Venezuelan population knows they are invaded by Cuban agents, but this isn't publicized by USA and Europe media: 



You seem Raúl Castro is the main actor supporting and guiding Maduro and his henchmen. Therefore, a full scale economic war against the Cuban dictatorship would be useful to undermine his ability or will to support Maduro. The overall effort needs to include American corporations trying to do business in Cuba (cruise lines, airlines, anything oriented at the sexual tourism and prostitution evolving to satisfy American tourists). The Spanish company Melia should be boycotted as a defensive measure. 

The same applies to Maduro regime friendly corporations such as Chevron, Repsol, Schlumberger, Wood Group and hardware suppliers. All of these should be pilloried and condemned. 

I don't think this effort will amount to much if any of these actions are taken alone, but altogether they may convince the chavista elite to dump Maduro this year and do so with Raúl Castro's approval. A tall order which requires much sacrifice, but may be the only way out. To those who advocate violent action at this point I suggest that's probably a dead end. 

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